Three lands on every map
When a big employer opens, businesses tend to show up in a rough order. The map groups them into three lands. The rings show the usual order of arrival, not a schedule.
Main Street
These shops live off traffic: workers on a shift and drivers passing the site. They are the first to notice a new employer, and the first to feel it if the project stalls or shrinks.
Market Square
The everyday needs of new households and workers: groceries, repairs, haircuts, banking, hardware, clothes and prescriptions. They follow once the workforce is steady, and a Supercenter competes with several of them.
Neighborhood Park
These follow people who move in, not just people who commute in. They take the longest to appear, and only if housing does.
Meet the 16 shops on the map
Each shop below is a type of local business. The size is the average number of employees per business in the United States.
Restaurants and cafes
Why they come: Workers eat lunch and grab coffee near where they work. Restaurants are usually the first to notice a new shift.
Check in your town: Count the restaurants within a few minutes of the site. Are any empty or struggling?
Gas stations
Why they come: Commuters and delivery trucks refuel on the way. Corner sites on the main route get the traffic.
Check in your town: Which road will the workers and trucks actually use? Fuel sells where the traffic stops.
Hotels and motels
Why they come: Visiting contractors, trainers, suppliers and drivers need rooms, especially near a plant, hospital or warehouse.
Check in your town: Do existing hotels fill up on weekdays today? If not, new rooms are a harder sell.
Grocery stores
Why they come: More households and shift workers buy groceries. A Supercenter sells groceries too, so grocers already in town feel the competition first.
Check in your town: How many grocers serve the area, and how far is the next one?
Auto repair and car care
Why they come: More commuters mean more oil changes, tires and repairs. Shops are small, usually five or six people.
Check in your town: Is there a repair shop within a few minutes of the site, and does it have a wait?
Salons and personal care
Why they come: Salons, barbers and pet care follow households. They are small and quick to open.
Check in your town: How many salons and barbers serve the area, and are they booked?
Gyms and recreation
Why they come: Gyms and recreation follow a steady workforce and new residents, often after the first wave arrives.
Check in your town: Is there a gym within a short drive, and would shift workers use it at odd hours?
Banks and credit unions
Why they come: Branches follow new payrolls and households, but they open on corporate schedules, so expect them late.
Check in your town: Are branches closing or opening in your area? Banks decide on their own timeline.
Hardware and home stores
Why they come: New residents repair and furnish. A Supercenter's hardware aisle competes with local stores directly.
Check in your town: What can a local store offer that a big-box aisle can't, such as advice and delivery?
Clothing and shoe stores
Why they come: New households buy clothes and shoes. A Supercenter's apparel aisle competes with local shops.
Check in your town: What does your shop sell that a big-box store won't carry?
Pharmacies and health stores
Why they come: More residents mean more prescriptions and health items. Supercenters often include a pharmacy, so independents feel it.
Check in your town: Do local pharmacies offer delivery, advice or hours a big store can't?
Dollar and variety stores
Why they come: Value stores follow price-sensitive households. Supercenters compete head to head on price.
Check in your town: How many value stores are already close, and are they busy?
Doctor and dental offices
Why they come: Clinics and dental offices follow new residents, not just new jobs, so they take longer to appear.
Check in your town: Are local practices accepting new patients? A waitlist signals demand.
Child care
Why they come: Working parents need child care. Demand builds once families move in or the jobs run on set shifts.
Check in your town: Do local centers have waitlists, and what hours do the new shifts need?
Accounting and tax offices
Why they come: New households and small firms need tax and bookkeeping help. Offices open as the local business base grows.
Check in your town: How many tax and bookkeeping offices serve the area, and what do they charge?
Real estate and property managers
Why they come: Agents, landlords and property managers follow new households and rentals.
Check in your town: Is housing being built or listed? Without homes, this group stays small.
How the map gets its numbers
Local service jobs added = anchor jobs × a Groundwork multiplier for that kind of anchor.
Jobs by business type = those jobs × the type’s share of U.S. local commerce employment, weighted toward shops that arrive first.
Number of businesses = jobs for that type ÷ the typical employees per business.
| Anchor | Low | Base | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Distribution or fulfillment center | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Factory or plant | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Hospital | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Supercenter or big-box store | 0 | 0.25 | 0.5 |
Shares and sizes come from Census County Business Patterns 2023, national totals. Main Street shops count at full weight, Market Square shops at 80% and Neighborhood Park shops at 50%, because those depend on new residents. The multipliers and weights are Groundwork’s own estimates, set by our advisors from the research below. They are meant to be practical and easy to explain, not exact.
Town size and income. Two dials adjust the base numbers. Population changes how much of the new demand existing businesses already cover. We start from a typical town of 25,000 people. A town half that size needs more new shops, and a town twice that size needs fewer. Median household income is compared with the U.S. median of $83,730 (Census Bureau, 2024). Shops people use when they have money to spare (restaurants, hotels, gyms, salons, clothing) move strongly with income. Everyday-need shops (gas, groceries, repairs, pharmacies) barely move. Dollar and variety stores move the other way. Both effects are capped so no single input can swing a count wildly. The strengths are Groundwork estimates.
Already in town. Mark the shops you know are already there. Each one you count (up to three of a kind) takes half a shop off the new count for that type, because an existing business has some room to take on the extra customers. Half is a Groundwork estimate. It lets the map show what is still missing.
What the map doesn’t tell you
It does not use your county’s own business counts, so it cannot tell you whether the area already has enough of something. It ignores timing, supplier purchases, new housing and shoppers who drive in. Studies of Walmart openings disagree about the effect on nearby retail, and none we found counts the restaurants and repair shops that opened nearby. Use the map to decide what to check, then check your local numbers.
Want your own numbers? Try the Groundwork Cluster Calculator, read When Walmart Comes to Town, follow the step-by-step guide or browse the Startup Industry Database.
Anticipated Questions
What businesses open near a new Walmart or Supercenter?
Usually fewer than people expect. Studies of Walmart openings disagree: some find a net loss of nearby retail jobs, others a small gain, and the harm tends to land on small stores that sell the same things. In our map a 250-job Supercenter brings about 2 new businesses in the base case (range 0 to 7), mostly restaurants and clinics. Grocery, hardware, clothing and pharmacy shops sell what the store sells.
Do restaurants and gas stations open near a distribution center?
Often, and they tend to come first. Warehouse workers eat and fuel up near where they work, and trucks refuel nearby. In our map a 500-job distribution center brings about 37 new businesses in the base case (range 20 to 58), led by restaurants. Whether a particular town gets them depends on the road, the zoning and what is already there.
How many local jobs does a big employer create?
It depends on the kind of employer. Economist Enrico Moretti found about 1.6 local service jobs for each new manufacturing job in U.S. cities. We use 0.5, 1.0 and 1.6 for a distribution center or factory, lower for a hospital, and lower still for a Supercenter, because studies of big-box stores find mixed results. These are Groundwork working assumptions, not measurements for your town.
What businesses follow a new hospital?
Pharmacies, clinics and dental offices, restaurants, lodging for visitors, child care for staff and property managers. Many hospital workers already live nearby, so we set the multiplier a little lower than for a factory.
Does a Walmart help or hurt local small businesses?
It depends on what you sell and how close you are. One study found about 150 fewer county retail jobs after an opening, another found a small net gain, and a third found the harm concentrated at nearby small stores in the same detailed industry. Read our paper, When Walmart Comes to Town, for the studies.
How accurate is the Business Demand Map?
It is an approximation, not a forecast. It multiplies stated assumptions together and shows a range. It does not know your county's current businesses, housing, roads or zoning. Use it to decide what to check, then check your own numbers.
How do I know a big project is really coming?
Check your city or county planning and zoning agendas, permit filings and economic development announcements. An announcement is not a building. Plan around projects that have permits and financing, not rumors.
How do I start a business near a new employer?
Start with a startup estimate: what the business will cost to open, what it has to sell to survive and what happens if the employer is smaller or later than hoped. Groundwork can quote that work for you. Tap Get a startup estimate on any shop on the map, or see the Startup Industry Database for cited costs.
How do population and income change the map?
Population sets how much new demand existing shops already cover, so a smaller town needs more new shops and a bigger one needs fewer. Income changes spending: restaurants, hotels, gyms, salons and clothing stores respond strongly to it, while gas stations, groceries and repair shops barely do. Dollar and variety stores run the opposite way. Both are Groundwork estimates, shown in the method section.
Does Groundwork have any tie to the companies or researchers named?
No. Names appear only because the research does.
Sources
- U.S. Census Bureau: County Business Patterns, 2023 (national employment and establishments)
- Moretti, E.: Local multipliers (jobs in manufacturing and local service jobs)
- Neumark, Zhang and Ciccarella: The Effects of Wal-Mart on Local Labor Markets (NBER 11782)
- Haltiwanger, Jarmin and Krizan: Mom-and-Pop Meet Big-Box: Complements or Substitutes? (NBER 15348)
Last reviewed October 22, 2026. General information for planning, not legal, tax or financial advice. Groundwork has no affiliation with any company named. Found an error? Email info@groundworkbusinessadvisory.com.
